Summary: Bitcoin tumbled to $85,788 this week, marking its steepest monthly decline since mid-2021 with over $18,000 lost in November. Record ETF outflows of $3.55 billion signal institutional capitulation, while miners face unprecedented challenges with difficulty at 149.30T and hashprice hovering near historic lows at $38/PH/s per day.
Bitcoin Price Action: Breaking Below Key Support Levels
Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 6% single-day plunge on December 1st, 2025, dropping to $85,788 and briefly touching $83,879—the steepest daily percentage fall since early November. This decline follows Bitcoin’s worst monthly performance since mid-2021, shedding more than $18,000 in value throughout November alone.
The cryptocurrency market lost over $1 trillion in total market capitalization since reaching a record $4.3 trillion, according to CoinGecko data. Adding pressure to the bearish sentiment, Strategy (MSTR.O)—the largest corporate Bitcoin holder—cut its earnings forecast for 2025, citing Bitcoin’s weak performance. The company’s shares subsequently fell 3.3%.
Technical Breakdown and Market Sentiment
The sharp decline triggered nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations across both long and short positions in 24 hours, per CoinGlass data. Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA, noted that “Bitcoin seems to be suffering from fading enthusiasm across crypto as well as the tech world,” pointing to concerns about market concentration and sustainability issues.
Record ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Capitulation
The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed unprecedented trading activity last week, with cumulative volumes surpassing $40.32 billion—but this surge came with massive redemptions signaling institutional capitulation rather than confidence.
BlackRock’s IBIT Leads Massive Volume Surge
BlackRock’s IBIT dominated the market with $27.79 billion in trading volume, accounting for nearly 70% of total ETF activity, according to SoSoValue data. On Friday alone, these funds recorded over $11.01 billion in volume, with IBIT contributing $8 billion. However, this record-setting activity coincided with the fund falling to its lowest level since April.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs processed record redemptions worth $3.55 billion in November alone. LSEG data confirms this represents the largest dollar outflow since these products launched. Bianco Research indicates that most ETF holders are now underwater, as the weighted-average entry price for holders sits above $90,000.
Institutional Behavior Challenges Long-Term Thesis
These record redemptions challenge the prevailing belief that institutional investors take exclusively long-term positions in Bitcoin. The rapid capitulation suggests fears of an impending macroeconomic crisis are driving sophisticated investors to exit positions en masse.
| ETF Provider | Weekly Volume | November Outflows |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock IBIT | $27.79B | ~$1.2B (est.) |
| Fidelity FBTC | ~$5B | ~$800M (est.) |
| Grayscale GBTC | ~$3B | ~$900M (est.) |
| ARK 21Shares | ~$2B | ~$300M (est.) |
| Total (11 ETFs) | $40.32B | $3.55B |
Ethereum and Altcoins Face Intensified Selling Pressure
While Bitcoin dominated headlines, Ethereum (ETH) faced even steeper declines, plummeting 8.8% on December 1st to trade at $2,756. The second-largest cryptocurrency lost approximately 22% of its value throughout November—its worst monthly performance since February’s 32% slide.
ETH ETF Outflows Exceed $1.4 Billion
Since the Federal Reserve’s late October meeting, when Chairman Jerome Powell effectively ruled out December rate cuts, U.S.-listed spot Ether ETFs have hemorrhaged $1.4 billion in net outflows, Farside Investors data reveals. Thursday’s nearly $260 million outflow represented the biggest single-day bleed in a month.
Ethereum’s technical breakdown shattered the critical $3,325 support level, establishing a clear bearish trend with consecutive lower highs. Primary support now sits at $3,080, with secondary floors at $3,050 and $2,880. Key resistance has formed at $3,330 (former support), $3,500 (main pivot), and $3,650.
Long-Term Holders Accelerate Distribution
Glassnode’s blockchain data shows long-term ETH holders spanning 3-10 years are accelerating selling to approximately 45,000 ETH (around $140 million at current prices) daily on a 90-day moving average—the highest distribution pace since February 2021.
Ethereum’s fundamentals are also deteriorating. Monthly active addresses on the network have fallen to 8.2 million, down from over 9 million in September, while transaction fees over the past month collapsed by 42% to just $27 million, Token Terminal data confirms.
Solana ETFs Buck the Trend with Consistent Inflows
Amid the broader market carnage, U.S. spot Solana (SOL) ETFs extended their inflow streak to 17 consecutive days—the longest uninterrupted run of positive flows among crypto ETFs in 2025. The funds added $48.5 million on Wednesday, taking cumulative net inflows since their October 28th inception to $476 million, Farside data shows.
Institutional Appetite for SOL Exposure Grows
Wednesday’s $48.5 million inflow marked the second-largest single day in November. Bitwise’s BSOL led with $35.9 million in fresh capital, followed by Grayscale’s GSOL at $12.6 million. Fidelity (FSOL) and VanEck (VSOL) added smaller amounts.
The sustained inflows into Solana ETFs indicate institutional demand for diversified crypto exposure even as the broader market weakens. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) dropped 12% over the past seven days, yet SOL products continued attracting capital.
| Solana ETF | November Inflows | Total Assets |
|---|---|---|
| Bitwise BSOL | $180M+ | $220M (est.) |
| Grayscale GSOL | $140M+ | $150M (est.) |
| Fidelity FSOL | $80M+ | $65M (est.) |
| VanEck VSOL | $75M+ | $41M (est.) |
| Total | $476M | ~$476M |
This divergence from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF trends suggests investors are seeking exposure to alternative Layer-1 blockchains with stronger fundamentals and growth potential despite market turbulence.
Bitcoin Mining: Surviving at Difficulty Highs with Record-Low Hashprice
Bitcoin miners face their most challenging operational environment in history, caught between escalating network difficulty and collapsing profitability metrics. Current mining difficulty sits at 149.30 trillion, while hashprice has plummeted to approximately $38.3 per petahash per day—near all-time lows.
Difficulty Projected to Rise Amid Profit Crisis
The next difficulty adjustment scheduled for December 8th-11th is projected to increase by approximately 2.96%, pushing difficulty toward 153-154 trillion, according to Newhedge’s Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator. This upward adjustment occurs despite hashprice hovering around $38/PH/s per day—up marginally from a recent trough below $35/PH/s on November 21st but still near historic lows.
For context, hashprice measures the expected daily revenue for 1 terahash per second (TH/s) of mining capacity. At current levels, miners are experiencing their worst profitability crisis ever, pushing many operators to shut down rigs or repurpose facilities entirely.
The Rise of Curtailment Credits as Revenue Lifeline
In this challenging environment, curtailment credits have emerged as a critical revenue stream for miners with strategic grid relationships. Riot Platforms earned $8.3 million in curtailment credits in Q2 2025, effectively cutting its cost-per-bitcoin by double digits.
Curtailment programs allow miners to voluntarily reduce power consumption during peak demand periods in exchange for financial compensation from grid operators. This revenue diversification has become essential for survival as direct mining margins compress.
Efficiency Requirements Intensify: S21 XP and Next-Gen ASICs
Only the most efficient mining hardware remains profitable in current conditions. The Bitmain Antminer S21 XP (270 TH/s, 13.5 J/TH efficiency) and S21 XP Hydro (473 TH/s, 12 J/TH efficiency) represent the current generation’s top performers for air-cooled and hydro-cooled operations respectively.
At $0.07/kWh electricity costs, the S21 XP generates approximately $341.99 in monthly BTC revenue before electricity costs, while consuming roughly $183 in power—leaving a net profit margin of around $159/month per unit at current Bitcoin prices. However, at higher electricity rates above $0.10/kWh, profitability turns negative for most hardware.
Older generation miners like the S19 series now operate at a loss in most jurisdictions. The S19 XP Hydro (257TH), once a flagship model, generates estimated monthly revenue of $292.88 but consumes $305.51 in electricity at $0.10/kWh—resulting in a $12.63 monthly loss per unit.
Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility and Uncertainty
The convergence of bearish factors—plummeting Bitcoin prices, record ETF outflows, deteriorating altcoin fundamentals, and mining profitability compression—has created one of the most challenging environments in cryptocurrency history. However, several analysts maintain cautiously optimistic long-term perspectives.
Correlation with Traditional Markets
Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets has intensified, with some strategists viewing it as a potential leading indicator for broader market sentiment. Kathleen Brooks, XTB research director, noted that “Bitcoin tends to be a leading indicator for overall risk sentiment right now, and its slide does not bode well for stocks at the start of this month.”
The sharp decline in the VIX (volatility index) last week, falling back below the 12-month average, may have unnerved investors concerned about an uncertain year-end outlook. CME Bitcoin futures show growing bearishness, with three-month contracts trading at their smallest premium to near-month contracts in at least a year.
December Seasonality and Historical Patterns
Historically, December has been Bitcoin’s third-strongest month on average, with typical gains of approximately 9.7%. October typically ranks as the strongest month (16.6% average gain), while September tends to be weakest (-3.5% average loss). However, Bitcoin’s short lifespan means limited seasonality data exists to guide expectations.
Strategic Considerations for Miners
For mining operations, survival in this environment requires:
- Ultra-efficient hardware: Transitioning to S21 XP-class machines or better
- Sub-$0.08/kWh power costs: Electrical efficiency is non-negotiable
- Curtailment revenue: Partnerships with grid operators for demand response programs
- Capital efficiency: Avoiding excessive debt loads that previous cycles encouraged
- Operational flexibility: Ability to shut down unprofitable rigs rapidly
The Miners1688 product lineup focuses on next-generation efficient hardware suited for this challenging environment, including the latest Bitmain Antminer S21+ series and Canaan Avalon Made Q units optimized for cost-effective operations.
Industry Consolidation and Path Forward
The current market conditions are accelerating industry consolidation, with smaller miners unable to sustain operations being acquired by larger, better-capitalized players. This consolidation phase mirrors previous Bitcoin cycles, where each downturn strengthens surviving participants.
Public Miners vs. Private Operations
Publicly-traded miners face additional pressure from shareholder expectations and quarterly reporting requirements. Private operations with patient capital and low electricity costs maintain competitive advantages during downturns.
TeraWulf reported Q2 2025 revenue increased 34% year-over-year to $47.6 million, reflecting strategic positioning with low-cost power infrastructure. Similar success stories emerge from operations that secured advantageous power contracts before the latest difficulty surge.
AI and Mining: Competition for Energy Resources
An emerging challenge for Bitcoin miners is competition from artificial intelligence data centers for electrical infrastructure. AI operations can often outbid miners for power contracts, particularly in premium locations with robust grid infrastructure.
This dynamic is driving miners toward unconventional locations—oil fields with flared gas, remote hydroelectric installations, and grid-balancing demand response programs that generate curtailment revenue.
Long-Term Bitcoin Mining Thesis
Despite current challenges, the fundamental Bitcoin mining thesis remains intact for efficient operators:
- Fixed supply schedule: Only ~1.5 million BTC remain to be mined of the 21 million maximum
- Increasing institutional adoption: Despite November’s outflows, total ETF assets remain substantial
- Halving cycles: The April 2024 halving reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, creating long-term scarcity
- Global payment infrastructure: Bitcoin’s role as a monetary network continues expanding
The question is not whether Bitcoin mining will be profitable, but which operators will survive to capture future profitability when market conditions improve.
FAQ: Understanding the Current Crypto Market Dynamics
Q: Why did Bitcoin ETFs see record outflows in November 2025?
A: Bitcoin ETFs experienced $3.55 billion in net outflows due to institutional capitulation amid Bitcoin’s price decline from near $108,000 to below $86,000. The weighted-average entry price for ETF holders sits above $90,000, meaning most institutional investors are now underwater on their positions. Concerns about Federal Reserve policy, macroeconomic uncertainty, and technical breakdown below key support levels accelerated redemptions.
Q: What is Bitcoin mining hashprice and why is it at historic lows?
A: Hashprice measures the expected daily revenue per terahash per second (TH/s) of mining capacity. Current hashprice sits at approximately $38/PH/s per day, near all-time lows, due to the combination of: (1) Bitcoin’s price decline to $85,000-$86,000, (2) Network difficulty at 149.30 trillion (near record highs), and (3) Increased global hashrate competition. This creates the worst profitability environment in Bitcoin mining history.
Q: Which Bitcoin mining hardware remains profitable in December 2025?
A: Only the most efficient next-generation ASICs remain profitable at current conditions. The Bitmain Antminer S21 XP (270 TH/s, 13.5 J/TH) and S21 XP Hydro (473 TH/s, 12 J/TH) maintain profitability at electricity rates below $0.08/kWh. Older generation hardware like S19 series operates at a loss in most jurisdictions. Miners should avoid purchasing outdated equipment that cannot survive current market conditions.
Q: Why are Solana ETFs seeing inflows while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bleed?
A: Solana ETFs have recorded 17 consecutive days of inflows totaling $476 million since launching October 28th, despite broader market weakness. This divergence suggests investors are seeking exposure to alternative Layer-1 blockchains with stronger fundamentals, lower valuations, and growth potential. Solana’s consistent network activity and ecosystem development make it attractive for diversification away from Bitcoin and Ethereum during market uncertainty.
Q: What are curtailment credits and why are they important for miners?
A: Curtailment credits are payments miners receive for voluntarily reducing power consumption during peak electrical demand periods. These programs allow miners to generate revenue from grid-balancing services rather than solely from Bitcoin block rewards. Riot Platforms earned $8.3 million in curtailment credits in Q2 2025, effectively reducing cost-per-bitcoin significantly. In the current low-hashprice environment, curtailment revenue has become a critical survival mechanism for mining operations. Learn more about curtailment strategies.
Q: Is Bitcoin mining still profitable after the 2024 halving?
A: Bitcoin mining profitability in late 2025 depends entirely on three factors: (1) Hardware efficiency—only S21-class or better machines remain viable, (2) Electricity costs—operations need sub-$0.08/kWh rates, and (3) Revenue diversification—curtailment credits and grid services. Individual small-scale mining is largely unprofitable at current difficulty levels. However, professional operations with efficient hardware, low-cost power, and strategic revenue diversification maintain profitability and position themselves for the next market cycle.
Related Resources:
- Bitcoin Mining Profitability Calculator
- Best Bitcoin Mining Hardware 2025
- Understanding Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustments
- Curtailment Revenue Strategies for Miners
Sources: Reuters, CoinDesk, Farside Investors, Glassnode, CoinWarz, Hashrate Index